Why Georgia’s government thinks it can scorn the EU and keep its grip on power

TBILISI — Eighty percent of Georgians want to join the European Union, so how can the government be so confident it will hold onto power by spurning Brussels and seemingly deliberately torpedoing the nation’s EU prospects?

That’s the political paradox at the heart of the crisis gripping the country.

In a sharp slap in the face to the EU, the ruling Georgian Dream party has passed Russian-style legislation that Brussels fears could be used to label media, think-tanks and NGOs with even a drop of Western funding as “foreign agents,” crimping freedom of speech.

The EU is making clear this legislation means membership is effectively off the cards, and the authorities used water cannon and pepper spray against thousands of protesters demonstrating against it outside parliament on Wednesday night.

To outside observers, Georgian Dream’s motives are one part of the puzzle. The government’s critics say it doesn’t want to rock relations with Russia by pursuing the EU trajectory — as Ukraine did — and also argue powerful elites fear their interests would be threatened by the judicial reforms demanded by the EU.

But Georgian Dream’s ability to defy the West and much of its own population needs even more explanation. Despite a massive protest movement, the government’s position is robust. The legislation sailed through on Wednesday with an 83-23 majority, and there is no opposition party that seems able to mount a real challenge to Georgian Dream.

Two young men wrapped in the country’s red and white flag at a pro-government rally offered some insight in Georgian Dream’s grip.

“We are doing something bad,” confided one of the pair, who asked to remain anonymous. “We are against this government and their Russian law, but we are students and our university is funded by the government, so we had to come.”

“I actually went to a protest against the law last night,” his friend added. “Together, I guess they cancel out.”

That sense that people in public institutions are corralled into giving Georgian Dream support — sometimes to their own chagrin — is significant. Sometimes they are bussed in to take part in pro-government rallies. POLITICO found several cases of public sector workers such as teachers and municipal staff being told to attend the event, ostensibly held in support of the foreign agent bill.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch who made his vast fortune in Russia and the founder of Georgian Dream, is a crucial player. His personal wealth and his party’s control of public finances have given him and his favored politicians enormous political influence, with the power to award state contracts and create employment, gaining them favor in a country where one in six people are jobless.

That patronage network compounds problems for a disorganised opposition.

“There is … no unified opposition that people trust, and Georgian Dream is known for vote-buying practices, abusing their administrative powers, particularly in the regions and threatening people that they will lose their jobs if they do not vote for Georgian Dream,” said Tinatin Akhvlediani, a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.

The polling numbers are indeed damning for the potential opposition. The most recent national polling, from March this year, shows that around 31 percent of the public supports Georgian Dream. That’s around twice the number backing any other party.

Mixed messages

Another key element to Georgian Dream’s success is that it does not depict itself as pro-Russian and anti-EU. It has become a master of strategic ambiguity.

When it comes to the Kremlin, it accuses the opposition of being the danger-men and risking conflict with Russia — citing the jailed opposition firebrand, former President Mikheil Saakashvili, who lost a war to Russia in 2008, as a classic example.

It also claims that it supports EU membership — but wants it on its own terms, without the emphasis on LGBTQ+ rights and without meddling foreign media and rights groups.

This mixed messaging appeared to be working at a pro-government rally earlier in the week. Davit, a 43-year-old, had been driven in from the city of Gori. By no means pro-Moscow, he had a photograph of a relative killed in the 2008 war pinned to his chest. “He’s my hero,” he said. “He died fighting the Russians.”

Amid a carnival atmosphere — with hawkers selling popcorn and vuvuzelas to those arriving from across the country — Davit was willing to give the national leaders a fair hearing. “We didn’t really know what this is all about,” he confided, shouting over the patriotic anthems blaring through the sound system outside the national parliament. “We’ll see, I guess!”

Ivanishvili was the star turn on stage at the event. He railed against “LGBT propaganda” and Western-backed NGOs, who he said represented a “pseudo-elite nurtured by a foreign country.”

However, despite the tough talk, he simultaneously promised that “having overcome these difficulties, with sovereignty and dignity intact, in 2030, Georgia will join the EU.”

The crowd cheered, irrespective of the warnings from Brussels that the foreign agent law would hamper the chances of that ever happening.

“Because Georgian Dream keeps the population confused — saying often that Georgia will become a member of the EU and at the same time ignoring the conditions presented by Brussels — many voters think we are on the right path,” said Akhvlediani.

Uneven playing field

Georgian Dream also oversees a powerful network of supportive media outlets that have cast its crusade against LGBTQ+ rights and civil society as an effort to stand up for Georgian values. A 2021 U.N. report found a highly polarized television and print environment, with outlets showing deference either to the government or to select opposition parties.

At the same time, elections in Georgia, according to the OSCE, have been marred by allegations of intimidation, vote-buying and even the arrest of prominent political opponents such as former President Saakashvili, who stands accused of abusing his office. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream’s “misuse of administrative resources” is said to have given it a substantial advantage in turning out its vote, the OSCE says.

But even despite their frustrations, many Georgians say they don’t see a clear alternative to the ruling party. The country’s largest opposition bloc, the United National Movement founded by Saakashvili, has struggled to distance itself from criticism of his time in office, marked by allegations of cronyism and a cult of personality.

While pro-government and anti-government demonstrations have now become a regular feature outside Georgia’s grand, Soviet-built parliament building, journalists say they have been shut out of its hallways for weeks as the political row grows to prevent them confronting lawmakers.

At a meeting in her office in the assembly building, Tinatin Bokuchava, the leader of the United National Movement (UNM) — Georgia’s largest opposition faction — told POLITICO that her party faces an uphill struggle to convince people to vote out Georgian Dream in order to fulfil their European ambitions.

“It’s through fear and division that the government wins and can mobilize their base and demoralize, and therefore disenfranchise,” she said. “The UNM has the most disciplined and engaged voter base aside from Georgian Dream, but that’s not enough to garner a victory,” Bokuchava admitted, “so we need to work with all pro-European opposition parties to create a united front.”

And things might be about to get worse for them. In his speech on Monday, Ivanishvili vowed to crack down on the opposition if his party is re-election in parliamentary elections slated for October this year.

“After the elections, the UNM will strictly answer for all the crimes it has committed against the Georgian state and Georgian people,” he added, in what has been widely seen as a threatened crackdown on Bokuchava’s party, the latest instalment in the long-running personal rivalry between the Georgian Dream chairman and Saakashvili.

“We will have the opportunity to give the UNM the harsh political and legal judgment it deserves.”

It’s hardly a message that will play well in Brussels.

Gabriel Gavin reported from Tbilisi. Dato Parulava contributed reporting from Brussels.