The 5 commissioners most likely to get the chop

It’s not often that the European Parliament gets to lord it over the European Commission — but this is one of those moments.

Over the next few weeks, MEPs will hold hearings for the 26 commissioners nominated by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Don’t expect them all to survive.

Since 2004, the Parliament has rejected at least one nominee in every new Commission. Seven people in total have walked into the Parliament as commissioners-designate and walked out as ordinary citizens.

In 2004, Italy’s candidate was axed because of his homophobic and misogynous comments, while the Latvian nominee got the boot after the Parliament decided she hadn’t done enough to explain past financial irregularities.

In 2009, Bulgaria’s Rumana Jeleva had to stand down after lawmakers rejected her over links to a lobby firm and what they said was her unfamiliarity with her portfolio.

In 2014, Slovenia’s candidate was dismissed after a disastrous performance in front of the committee determining his fate.

The biggest killing spree took place in 2019, the last time lawmakers got to flex their muscles, when MEPs brought down three Commissioners. Romania’s pick was finished by a donation to her Socialist party; Hungary’s nominee, whose law firm had worked for the country’s government, was canned over conflict-of-interest worries; and France’s candidate, the liberal star Sylvie Goulard, was rejected over ethical concerns about her work for a U.S. think tank.

This time around, the leaders of the Parliament’s political groups say they want to get things done quickly so the new Commission can get to work. That means they might hold fire to avoid one failed nomination from sparking a feeding frenzy with rival parties targeting each other’s candidates — but don’t bet on it.

If the Parliament does decide to take a bite out of von der Leyen’s team, here’s a list of the candidates most likely to fall.

The black sheep
Olivér Várhelyi — Commissioner for Health and Animal Welfare
Hungary

It’s no secret that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s pick will face an aggressive hearing. As commissioner for neighborhood and enlargement in von der Leyen’s first term, Várhelyi faced criticism from Brussels officials over his embrace of candidate countries that gave rise to rule-of-law and democracy concerns. MEPs might also remember the occasion in 2023 when he called them “idiots.”

While Budapest is rumored to have a Plan B ready to go in MEP Enikő Győri, some in the Parliament are worried that voting down Várhelyi would allow Orbán to hold Brussels hostage by not proposing a substitute. Still, there is wide agreement in the legislature that he is the nominee most likely to be brought down.

The fallen ambassador
Marta Kos — Commissioner for Enlargement
Slovenia

Kos was a last-minute pick by her government after von der Leyen pressured the country to nominate a female candidate. While her credentials look promising, she’ll likely face questions about her competence. She resigned as Slovenia’s ambassador to Germany and Switzerland in 2020 following mismanagement allegations and a four-week investigation conducted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, according to Slovenian media.

Her links to one of the world’s biggest lobbying firms won’t go unnoticed either. Kos has worked for global communications consultancy Kreab as a senior adviser, offering “her in-depth knowledge of leadership, communication, gender issues, political affairs and foreign relations, especially in German-speaking countries and South-East Europe,” according to the company’s website. Kos told POLITICO she doesn’t see herself as a lobbyist, nor is she listed as one in the EU’s transparency register.

She will also need to overcome accusations by Slovenia’s EPP delegation on her alleged links to police in the former Yugoslavia, as reported by Euronews, a charge she has repeatedly denied.

The face of Belgium
Hadja Lahbib — Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid, Crisis Management and Equality
Belgium

The Parliament will be reluctant to take down one of the few women in von der Leyen’s team, and Lahbib’s portfolio isn’t one of the more coveted gigs. Still, Lahbib — who as Belgian foreign minister was the face of last spring’s EU Council presidency — better brace herself for a grilling. She is likely to face questions about her past, especially regarding a trip to Crimea during her time as a journalist which was funded by Russia, and on her handling of visas for Iranian officials, for which she almost lost her job as foreign minister.

The target
Ekaterina Zaharieva — Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation
Bulgaria

The knives are out for Ekaterina Zaharieva, Bulgaria’s former foreign minister. In 2018 Zaharieva was caught up in a scandal related to the sale of Bulgarian citizenships. As Euractiv reported at the time, a former immigration official accused Zaharieva of going along with the scam as justice minister. Zaharieva denied the accusations, and there was no judicial follow-up, but her political opponents are eager to remind everyone of her association with the scandal. 

The newbie
Glenn Micallef — Commissioner for Intergenerational Fairness, Youth, Culture and Sport
Malta

Malta’s pick raised eyebrows among members of Micallef’s own Labour Party due to of his inexperience for a job that is often staffed by a former prime minister or other political heavyweight. Micallef, 35, was chief of staff to Prime Minister Robert Abela and knows Brussels well, having led Malta’s department in charge of coordinating with the EU. It will come down to whether lawmakers consider that resume adequate for the portfolio.

Sarah Wheaton contributed reporting to this article.