Pedro Sánchez’s nightmare before Christmas

MADRID — Pedro Sánchez is experiencing “hell before Christmas.”

That’s the claim of the opposition conservative People’s Party (PP), voiced by spokesperson Cuca Gamarra, as Sánchez seeks to fend off a barrage of corruption probes into members of his family — and his party.

The Socialist leader’s allies insist the scandals are part of a politically motivated witch hunt and coincide with his difficulties in maintaining a tenuous parliamentary majority.

“The government of Pedro Sánchez is at a critical juncture, it’s in a very difficult position,” said political scientist Lluís Orriols, author of “Democracia de trincheras” (“Trench Democracy”). 

“His previous legislature was long and very successful in terms of legislative output and parliamentary stability — but now the situation is the polar opposite.”

Three separate probes affecting people close to Sánchez are underway: into his wife and his brother, and another into alleged graft by senior members of his party. 

Family affairs

Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, has been under investigation since April following allegations she used her position as spouse of the prime minister to sway the awarding of government contracts. She is also being investigated for allegedly appropriating software from Complutense University where she worked.

On Dec. 18 she appeared for a third time before the judge leading the investigation, denying wrongdoing.

In a separate case, Sánchez’s musician brother — David Sánchez — is being investigated for alleged irregularities during his hiring as director of the office of performing arts in the southwestern province of Badajoz. He is due to testify in court Jan. 9.

Far-right campaign organization Manos Limpias filed the legal complaints that triggered both probes, which Sánchez’s allies have cast as part of a right-wing campaign — involving the media and politically compromised magistrates — to undermine his government.

“We know that they want to corral you through your family, we know that they are going after you because you represent the best of progress in Spain,” María Jesús Montero, finance minister and deputy secretary of the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), told Sánchez at a recent rally.

In April, when the probe into his wife began just five months after he formed a new coalition government, Sánchez threatened to resign over what he said was an attempt “to dehumanize and delegitimize the political adversary through scandalous and false accusations.”

Although both cases relating to family members have dominated headlines in right-aligned newspapers, neither has so far led to charges, and many observers expect them eventually to be shelved.

However, another investigation — into the activities of businessman Víctor de Aldama — is likely to be much more damaging. Aldama claims to have been the intermediary in the payment of commissions to members of government in exchange for the awarding of public works contracts to private firms.

Socialists accused of corruption

José Luis Ábalos, a former transport and public works minister and a heavyweight in the PSOE, was implicated following the February arrest of his close advisor, Koldo García.

Although the PSOE swiftly moved to expel Ábalos (who maintains his innocence), Aldama made further allegations that implicate other prominent Socialists, most recently when he testified in court Dec. 17.

While Aldama has provided no hard evidence to substantiate his claims, the opposition has presented the three separate investigations as proof the administration has a rotten underbelly.

“It is absolute cowardice for them to say that they are being persecuted,” said PP spokesperson Gamarra. “No, they are not being persecuted — these are facts, it is the criminal code.”

Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University, says that beyond their legal impact, all three probes have a political knock-on effect. “The government loses control of the agenda, so it is unable to ensure that the issues it wants to be talked about are talked about — such as the economy.”

With its strong growth, controlled inflation and robust job creation, Spain topped a recent Economist ranking of the best-performing economies in the world. However, Sánchez’s government has struggled to benefit from such indicators as it bats away corruption-related attacks and defends concessions made to keep its parliamentary majority intact.

If the Aldama scandal does snowball, Simón said, “it could mean that supporting the government ends up becoming radioactive” for other parties.

Fragile coalition

So far, the junior coalition partner — left-wing Sumar — has stood by the PSOE. However, with its majority depending on a broad array of parties including Catalan and Basque nationalists, the government’s stability is shaky.

That became apparent when the Catalan separatist party Junts, Sánchez’s most restive ally, this month proposed a no-confidence motion against him for the coming weeks, claiming he had failed to deliver on previous commitments. Junts, the party of the self-exiled Carles Puigdemont, is not expected to follow through on the threat. Rather, it is seen as an effort to squeeze further concessions from Madrid, such as improved financing for Catalonia.

However, Junts’ ability to block the 2025 budget, currently being negotiated, is seen as a more concrete danger for Sánchez.

“The real test will be the budget, that is the de facto no-confidence vote for the Spanish government in the next three months,” Orriols said.

Various parties have been using the budget as a bargaining chip. The unpredictability of his allies meant the prime minister was unable to approve the 2024 budget a year ago.

His former coalition partner, the far-left Podemos, is also making tough demands in exchange for its crucial continued support for the coalition’s majority — including breaking diplomatic ties with Israel and introducing radical housing rental caps.

These factors, when taken together, mean the threat of a power collapse in parliament is substantial.

“Preventing the approval of the budget for the second time in a row would clearly show that Pedro Sánchez does not command a parliamentary majority,” Orriols said.