Le Pen’s dilemma: Tolerate Barnier or unleash the dogs

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He tweets at @Mij_Europe.

In the six decades of the Fifth Republic, France has had majority governments loyal to the president, majority governments opposed to the president (“cohabitation”) and, in the last two years, minority governments that have struggled to enact President Emmanuel Macron’s agenda.

Now, with the appointment of an “independent” prime minister — veteran center-right politician Michel Barnier — the country has stumbled into the past. And his government will likely harken back to the swirling, unstable alliances of the Fourth Republic.

In a much-splintered National Assembly, Barnier has no personal support. In theory — though not always in practice — he can count on the 47 deputies from his own center-right camp, 166 from Macron’s center camp and up to 21 independents. But this falls well short of the 289 majority needed to govern.

Moreover, the four-party left alliance, which has 193 seats, is furious at being sidelined by Macron, after the president refused to appoint their obscure candidate, Lucie Castets, as prime minister. And they now intend to surge censure motions to try and bring his government down.

This ties Barnier’s survival to the personal and political calculations and whims of far-right opposition leader Marine Le Pen who, at any moment, could add her 142 assembly votes to the 193 held by the left to produce a majority that could bring down the Barnier government.

Over the weekend, Le Pen and her most senior lieutenant Jordan Bardella told French television the far right doesn’t want to contribute to France’s “institutional disorder and democratic chaos.” She talked of “judging the new government on its acts” and described Barnier as a “prime minister under surveillance.” Meanwhile, other senior National Rally officials spoke of “demanding a high price” for their passive support.

This suggests that — at least for now — Le Pen is poised to tolerate Barnier, so long as he pursues policies that address National Rally’s priorities: reducing legal and illegal migration; improving the standard of living of France’s working and lower-middle classes, probably by increasing the minimum wage; and moving to scrap France’s two-round legislative elections in favor of a one-round system of proportional representation.

The great unknown, however, is if Le Pen will be willing to help Barnier address the most immediate crisis facing the country: the painful choices needed to prevent France from plunging into a destructive fiscal crisis by the year’s end.

France will soon need a deficit-cutting draft budget for 2025, as well as a further €16 billion in savings this year to get the deficit back on track to the 5.1 percent promised to Brussels and financial markets — rather than the 5.6 percent of GDP it seems to be heading for.

To support of Barnier’s fiscal challenges, Le Pen could easily revive the far right’s own unhelpful budgetary obsessions, like cutting the cost of immigration, or push Barnier to reduce France’s contributions to the EU budget. But rather than being that predictable, National Rally’s strategy will likely be more fluid and opportunistic, possibly changing from week to week.

Truth is, if Le Pen brings down the new government, she risks being accused of plunging the country into chaos. If she supports the passage of an “austerity” budget — even passively — she’ll be accused of becoming another mainstream politician propping up the status quo by those on the left, as well as dissident voices on the far right. Additionally, her calculations are further complicated by the fact that she goes on trial at the end of this month for allegedly embezzling money from the EU. If convicted, she faces a five-year ban from holding public office.

So, the only thing that’s clear about Le Pen’s possible tactics and strategy will be their lack of clarity.

France has been moving from one deep crisis to another, and events over the next three months will undoubtedly prove complex, ill-tempered and unpredictable. To survive, Barnier will need to be dogged and pragmatic — just as he showed himself to be in the Brexit negotiations.