French PM Barnier needs 4 types of ministers if he’s going to survive

PARIS — Getting the job might have been the easy part.

Having being named France’s prime minister after an almost two-month political impasse, Michel Barnier must now form a government that reflects the fractured nature of French politics and acknowledges the results of an election won by his political rivals.

The conservative heavyweight and former Brexit negotiator said Wednesday that a new government should be appointed by the end of next week. But Barnier faces an uphill battle to assemble a team that won’t immediately succumb to a vote of no confidence.

His own party, Les Républicains, holds just 47 seats in the French National Assembly, and even with backing from MPs who support President Emmanuel Macron, Barnier can only count on the support of about 200 lawmakers—far short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.

With that in mind, Barnier is looking to fill out his cabinet with at least four different profiles to satisfy as many MPs as he can.

The token leftie

This summer’s snap elections, which Macron triggered following a far-right surge in June’s European election, led to a hung parliament. The New Popular Front, a coalition of the main left-wing parties, won the most seats, but no party or alliance came close to a majority.

Macron’s decision to name a right-wing prime minister following an electoral win by the left wing sparked a storm of criticism, especially from the New Popular Front, who slammed Barnier’s appointment as a “denial of democracy.”

That sentiment resonates with much of the public. A survey by pollster Elabe found that while 52 percent of respondents believe Barnier has the ability to compromise with other political forces, nearly three-quarters say Macron did not consider the election results when choosing him. Meanwhile, 55 percent agree with hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s claim that Macron “stole[] the elections from the French people.”

The new government will struggle to dispel this perception, particularly among left-wing voters. Members of the New Popular Front have vowed to support a motion of no confidence against Barnier’s administration.

Despite the hostility, Barnier remains intent on naming left-leaning cabinet members.

“There are good ideas everywhere … I’ve never been a sectarian. We need to open the door to anyone who wants to join us,” Barnier told French broadcaster TF1 in his first interview after his appointment.

But even the most moderate left-wing leaders have made it clear they will not work with Barnier’s government. That could force him to turn to political veterans no longer in the spotlight — like Ségolène Royal, the Socialist Party’s 2007 presidential candidate. Royal has signaled a willingness to collaborate, and her experience and public profile could offer a symbolic olive branch to the left, though it’s unclear how far her influence would go.

Odds of finding a good match:

The budget wizard

Barnier will need a strong candidate for finance minister, as the worrying state of France’s finances is the most urgent issue on the government’s desk.

Whoever he taps must draw up a budget by Oct. 1 and convince the European Union that Paris has a realistic plan to cut its massive debt, which last year prompted the European Commission to launch a so-called excessive deficit procedure against France for overspending. 

Even if the prime minister and his office are expected to play a direct role in the file, given Barnier’s deep experience in Brussels, the new leader will need someone credible to make France’s case before the Commission and to make full use of the flexibility in EU spending rules.

But the ideal candidate will need more than diplomatic skills and a good understanding of the fine points of France’s budget: They must also have the stomach to push for unpopular spending cuts and tax hikes to get the country’s finances in order.

Didier Migaud, the chief of France’s transparency authority, could be one option.

Odds of finding a good match:

The pro-Macron leftover

Although bruised by the snap election, some of Macron’s closest allies are maneuvering to maintain their positions. “The [pro-Macron coalition] will be the first force in support of the prime minister,” outgoing Minister for Gender Equality Aurore Bergé, a key Macron ally, said Monday. “We’ll need to bring in members [of the pro-Macron coalition].”

While Barnier has emphasized that his leadership will break from the past seven years of Macron’s presidency, he hasn’t ruled out keeping some current ministers on board. A few, like outgoing Culture Minister Rachida Dati, have made public their hopes of joining the new administration.

“If you can be useful to France, you don’t say no,” said Dati, a former member of Barnier’s own Les Républicains.

Another potential holdover is Gérald Darmanin, the outgoing interior minister and a fixture of Macron’s cabinets since 2017. Although he is expected to leave his current post, he could look to land a new job as foreign affairs or justice minister.

The balancing act Barnier faces requires that he include enough pro-Macron figures to maintain the president’s support, while giving the cabinet a sufficiently fresh look to distance it from Macron following his electoral defeat.

Odds of finding a good match:

The olive branch to the far right

With the left expected to remain in staunch opposition, Barnier will likely have to rely on at least the tacit support of the far-right National Rally, which is embracing its new role as kingmaker.

The National Rally won nearly one-third of the vote in the first round of the snap elections, though it underperformed in the runoffs a week later. Marine Le Pen has spoken positively about Barnier’s willingness to engage in dialogue, while National Rally President Jordan Bardella said the new prime minister would be placed “under surveillance” by his party.

While Barnier is unlikely to appoint a National Rally member to his cabinet — as it would alienate centrist support — he could still appeal to far-right voters by pursuing policies that align with their agenda. A likely common ground is immigration, where Barnier’s proposals have at times approached far-right territory.

According to FranceInfo, Barnier is already considering forming an immigration ministry, which existed under Nicolas Sarkozy’s 2007-2012 presidency, to attract National Rally voters. After the ministry was abolished in 2010, authority over immigration was returned to the interior ministry.

Barnier has been careful to put some distance between himself and the National Rally, saying he is “under the surveillance of the French people,” not just of any one party, he told reporters Saturday after visiting a hospital. Nonetheless, securing the support of the far right will likely be crucial to keeping his government afloat in France’s fractured parliament.

Odds of finding a good match: