Barnier lays out a survival plan for France … and himself

PARIS — In his first major policy speech since taking office, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Tuesday laid out his highly anticipated plan to fix the country’s financial woes and appease the various factions of its fractured legislature.

While Barnier made it clear that bringing down France’s “colossal” deficit was the most pressing item on his agenda, he used the hour-and-a-half-long address to offer a hodgepodge of measures meant to please everybody and not upset too many allies.

The result was a first glimpse of what will likely be Barnier’s leadership style.

The prime minister eschewed the great rhetorical flights characteristic of French President Emmanuel Macron’s public pronouncements, instead presenting himself as a ‘nuts and bolts’ man whose main concern is the future of the country that is “on the brink of the abyss” thanks to skyrocketing debt.

France’s deficit could come in above 6 percent of gross domestic product this year, and Barnier said in his speech that it may take until 2029 to get below the 3 percent level required by European Union rules — two years after a Brussels-mandated deadline.

“[The French] want us to look at the truth in the face, and they want a prime minister who will say the truth. I will say the truth about the state of our state finances,” he said.

Barnier offered no bold proposals or dramatic moments, but his solution to reducing the deficit could earn him some good will from the center left. The conservative grandee vowed to increase taxes on the France’s biggest and most profitable corporations and ask for a “special contribution” from the country’s wealthiest taxpayers in addition to pursuing spending cuts. He also announced a 2 percent increase to the minimum wage in France.

Barnier also hit hot-button topics with solutions likely to please conservatives and the far right. He pledged to hire more law enforcement, build more prisons and fight irregular migration.

Whether all that will be enough to keep his government afloat remains to be seen.

Macron tapped the former Brexit negotiator as premier in September in a bid to bring stability to France after a snap election this summer resulted in a hung parliament, but his appointment was met with fury by the left-wing alliance that won the most seats in that contest.

Lawmakers from the left have vowed to put forward a motion of no confidence to bring down Barnier and his government, which it could be tabled as early as next week.

Mixed reactions

Nobody appeared entirely satisfied from Barnier’s first address to lawmakers.

Even among the government’s supporters, the reactions to Barnier’s speech were sometimes muted. Lawmakers from his conservative party, the Republicans, were the only ones to give him a standing ovation after the speech. The centrists who nominally back Barnier did not.

In her formal response, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen slammed Barnier’s roadmap as a collection of “half measures” that would not solve France’s problems.

The survival of Barnier’s government depends on lawmakers from Le Pen’s National Rally refraining from voting for the left’s no-confidence motion, though she has already hinted that she would not attempt to topple the government straight away.

Still, Barnier’s future remains tenuous at best. Barnier acknowledged the sword of Damocles hanging over his head on Tuesday, but said that a “real sword of Damocles” was the mountain of debt hanging over French citizens.

Le Pen, meanwhile, appeared to acknowledge her kingmaker role and laid down her red lines. Those include enacting purchasing power measures for the poorest in France and new immigration legislation next year.

But the hardest is to come for the veteran conservative — whose government will present its hastily prepared budget for 2025 in the coming days — writes Mujtaba Rahman, the Europe head of Eurasia Group.

“He can hope to persuade Le Pen’s far right and/or part of the moderate left to abstain on the key votes” on the budget, or he could use a controversial parliamentary maneuver to bypass parliament. But “that would invite a cascade of motions [of no-confidence],” he added in a analytical paper.

Giorgio Leali and Elisa Bertholomey contributed reporting.